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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 43 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 34 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 33 games
48%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 29 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
NARMAN · 28 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NARMAN · 27 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 13 games
38%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
69%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sancity · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 290 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
334 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
326 picks · 434 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
312 picks · 522 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
302 picks · 292 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
298 picks · 424 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
295 picks · 473 bans
45%
Sand King
Sand King
289 picks · 793 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 48%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:35
MOUZ 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 27:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
57% · 269 games53% · 113 games
AlchemistYuragi
Alchemist
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
52% · 151 game49% · 174 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Mars
MarsForce
49% · 277 games49% · 345 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
46% · 200 games46% · 234 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Marci
Marcibengan
54% · 151 game45% · 182 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct12:32
MOUZ 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 25:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistUlnit
61% · 129 games54% · 16 games
Drow RangerYuragi
Drow Ranger
Puck
PuckSupream^
54% · 197 games45% · 156 games
BeastmasterBOOM
Beastmaster
Doom
DoomForce
52% · 223 games46% · 372 games
Pangolierbzm
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkNARMAN
56% · 266 games43% · 239 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Tusk
Tuskbengan
48% · 192 games47% · 224 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2