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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 42 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 38 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 33 games
64%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 30 games
73%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 28 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorsignature
bengan · 21 game
62%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 36 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 27 games
44%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 24 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Niku · 20 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
401 picks · 619 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 372 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
340 picks · 129 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
335 picks · 443 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 417 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 161 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
310 picks · 553 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:18
MOUZ 50%Natus Vincere Junior 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by MOUZ in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordUlnit
51% · 97 games51% · 108 games
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Monkey King
Monkey KingSupream^
52% · 96 games48% · 106 games
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Slardar
SlardarForce
52% · 96 games52% · 190 games
PangolierNiku
Pangolier
Oracle
Oraclebengan
50% · 53 games39% · 19 games
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
50% · 204 games49% · 123 games
LionDaze
Lion
Game 2prediction correct25:8
MOUZ 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherUlnit
44% · 27 games48% · 70 games
Chaos Knightgotthejuice
Chaos Knight
Enigma
EnigmaForce
57% · 110 games46% · 157 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Invoker
InvokerSupream^
46% · 130 games56% · 195 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
51% · 270 games49% · 144 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
ClockwerkNARMAN
54% · 194 games45% · 165 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 55%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2