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Riyadh Masters 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 15 games
67%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Force · 12 games
58%

Natus Vincere Junior

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 28 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 23 games
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 21 game
67%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
60%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 577 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
493 picks · 444 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
458 picks · 232 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
360 picks · 724 bans
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
324 picks · 741 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
324 picks · 506 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
308 picks · 267 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
300 picks · 93 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total72% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
MOUZ 37%Natus Vincere Junior 63%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaKami
48% · 168 games50% · 211 games
Doomgotthejuice
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingAbed
61% · 231 game51% · 175 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Axe
Axezeal
33% · 17 games49% · 91 game
Underlordpma
Underlord
Tusk
TuskEkki
46% · 347 games51% · 102 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Io
IoSeleri
47% · 42 games50% · 226 games
BatriderZayac
Batrider
Game 2prediction correct22:33
MOUZ 39%Natus Vincere Junior 61%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAbed
55% · 89 games42% · 110 games
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Monkey King
Monkey KingKami
60% · 216 games48% · 405 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
52% · 284 games45% · 24 games
Death ProphetNiku
Death Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
45% · 33 games46% · 211 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroEkki
51% · 362 games49% · 234 games
RubickZayac
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 72%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2