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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 56 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 42 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 31 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 29 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 29 games
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 25 games
68%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 25 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 14 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
494 picks · 402 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 268 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
486 picks · 546 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 355 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
402 picks · 344 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
364 picks · 826 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 864 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
344 picks · 200 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
MOUZ 58%Nemiga Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidCrystallis
70% · 48 games53% · 209 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
51% · 290 games56% · 133 games
Monkey Kingselfhate
Monkey King
Viper
ViperBOOM
46% · 154 games43% · 169 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
48% · 131 game48% · 142 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTobi
47% · 420 games48% · 390 games
JakiroFishman
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct45:15
MOUZ 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSumaiL
51% · 207 games44% · 132 games
Kunkkayoung G
Kunkka
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBOOM
45% · 53 games50% · 159 games
DoomCovisnine
Doom
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
49% · 53 games51% · 229 games
Muertaselfhate
Muerta
Rubick
RubickTobi
46% · 142 games31% · 14 games
Zeusariel
Zeus
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
56% · 176 games60% · 97 games
VenomancerFishman
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2