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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 32 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 26 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 25 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 19 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
94%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
75%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 27 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 25 games
40%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
542 picks · 276 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
492 picks · 499 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
371 picks · 1017 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
333 picks · 381 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
318 picks · 153 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
318 picks · 148 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
317 picks · 535 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
307 picks · 502 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:12
MOUZ 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
50% · 207 games47% · 179 games
LifestealerGhost
Lifestealer
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallis
52% · 179 games56% · 347 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Mars
MarsBOOM
45% · 234 games53% · 367 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinyyamich
47% · 475 games55% · 151 game
ChenTobi
Chen
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
47% · 247 games48% · 298 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct37:12
MOUZ 53%Nigma Galaxy 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
61% · 131 game44% · 251 game
TerrorbladeGhost
Terrorblade
Marci
MarciCrystallis
42% · 162 games51% · 196 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMidOne
62% · 218 games48% · 390 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
50% · 227 games51% · 27 games
VenomancerTobi
Venomancer
Tusk
Tuskyamich
47% · 338 games45% · 212 games
SnapfireOmaR
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 53%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2