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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 62 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 41 game
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 35 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 34 games
53%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 33 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 30 games
50%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 28 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 24 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 22 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 20 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristleback
No!ob · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
640 picks · 707 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 464 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 388 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
437 picks · 291 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
402 picks · 341 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1077 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 798 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 566 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total51% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:46
MOUZ 49%Nigma Galaxy 51%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCrystallis
43% · 14 games49% · 134 games
Ursarincyq
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMidOne
40% · 262 games59% · 83 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
52% · 191 game47% · 193 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeyamich
55% · 52 games53% · 70 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Enchantress
Enchantressaik
54% · 110 games50% · 149 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed21:53
MOUZ 51%Nigma Galaxy 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaCrystallis
43% · 83 games57% · 71 game
Faceless Voidrincyq
Faceless Void
Sand King
Sand KingMidOne
54% · 180 games55% · 298 games
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
48% · 255 games46% · 273 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
50% · 298 games49% · 81 game
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeyamich
56% · 44 games46% · 137 games
MuertaOmaR
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 51%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2