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FISSURE Universe: Episode 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 31 game
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 29 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 28 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 27 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 22 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
55%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 19 games
47%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 18 games
61%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 32 games
59%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 28 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 27 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 23 games
65%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
44%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 644 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
398 picks · 366 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 703 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
393 picks · 565 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
329 picks · 936 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total74% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:13
MOUZ 36%OG 64%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
47% · 96 games53% · 145 games
Leshracbzm
Leshrac
Zeus
ZeusSupream^
50% · 40 games48% · 40 games
UrsaTimado
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawForce
57% · 121 game47% · 79 games
ChenCeb
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
57% · 129 games47% · 120 games
Spirit BreakerWisper
Spirit Breaker
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorbengan
47% · 34 games36% · 36 games
Winter WyvernAri
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct5:28
MOUZ 39%OG 61%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusSupream^
49% · 62 games54% · 49 games
LycanTimado
Lycan
Juggernaut
JuggernautUlnit
49% · 18 games45% · 45 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordForce
55% · 33 games55% · 115 games
Centaur WarrunnerWisper
Centaur Warrunner
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
48% · 9 games48% · 40 games
MuertaAri
Muerta
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNARMAN
49% · 170 games47% · 43 games
VenomancerCeb
Venomancer
Game 3prediction correct21:47
MOUZ 40%OG 60%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUlnit
48% · 48 games54% · 170 games
TinyTimado
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
45% · 122 games49% · 147 games
Ember Spiritbzm
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSupream^
52% · 131 game50% · 168 games
EnchantressCeb
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
53% · 238 games51% · 42 games
SlardarWisper
Slardar
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
48% · 132 games49% · 144 games
GrimstrokeAri
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 74%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3