DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 12 games
Jakiro
Ekki · 11 games
Shadow Shaman
Thiolicor · 11 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 10 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 21 game
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
Tinysignature
Stormstormer · 18 games
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 15 games
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
302 picks · 758 bans
Disruptor
293 picks · 271 bans
Shadow Shaman
271 picks · 173 bans
Pugna
263 picks · 287 bans
Dawnbreaker
260 picks · 707 bans
Tusk
256 picks · 244 bans
Marci
253 picks · 717 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:8
MOUZ 50%OG 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Faceless VoidShad
AbaddonCrystallis
PuckStojkov
DawnbreakerBOOM
EarthshakerMikSa`
SnapfireSeleri
HoodwinkDaze
Tuskyamich
DisruptorLelis
Game 2prediction missed35:16
MOUZ 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMidOne
Shadow FiendStojkov
AbaddonCrystallis
Monkey KingShad
AxeBOOM
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Pudgeyamich
Naga SirenLelis
SnapfireSeleri
Shadow DemonDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2