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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Seleri · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kami · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
43%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 13 games
46%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 15 games
80%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 15 games
53%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 10 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 9 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kidaro · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
432 picks · 402 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
408 picks · 208 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 902 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
323 picks · 366 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
288 picks · 141 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
276 picks · 670 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 839 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:20
MOUZ 63%Pipsqueak+4 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
53% · 240 games45% · 101 game
SvenNande
Sven
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
58% · 12 games53% · 170 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarBOOM
46% · 97 games50% · 135 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
48% · 184 games51% · 163 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
55% · 182 games47% · 146 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct45:18
MOUZ 62%Pipsqueak+4 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMidOne
48% · 187 games56% · 73 games
Ogre MagiPalantimos
Ogre Magi
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
38% · 4 games55% · 74 games
Faceless VoidNande
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsBOOM
42% · 183 games54% · 284 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Tusk
Tuskyamich
44% · 372 games50% · 270 games
BatriderKaori
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
47% · 157 games60% · 202 games
EnchantressKidaro
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 74%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2