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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PlayTimewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 56 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 42 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 31 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 29 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 29 games
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 25 games
68%

PlayTime

Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 12 games
42%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 7 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
86%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kuku · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 5 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Akashi · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 273 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
486 picks · 556 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
455 picks · 365 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
448 picks · 347 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 329 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
352 picks · 830 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
346 picks · 845 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
325 picks · 189 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% PlayTime
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:7
MOUZ 52%PlayTime 48%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
51% · 281 game48% · 33 games
Death ProphetDarkMago
Death Prophet
Huskar
HuskarCrystallis
54% · 74 games46% · 188 games
MuertaWits
Muerta
Doom
DoomBOOM
46% · 153 games48% · 206 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Venomancer
VenomancerTobi
55% · 89 games51% · 302 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
53% · 380 games50% · 248 games
RubickScofield
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed32:41
MOUZ 51%PlayTime 49%
The model gave 51% on MOUZ — the game was taken by PlayTime in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
56% · 93 games50% · 145 games
Monkey KingWits
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSumaiL
47% · 441 game56% · 216 games
BatriderFrank
Batrider
Phoenix
PhoenixBOOM
51% · 328 games52% · 258 games
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Storm Spirit
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
41% · 212 games48% · 164 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesTobi
47% · 57 games52% · 348 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed31:46
MOUZ 54%PlayTime 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by PlayTime in 31:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Series resultPlayTime 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3