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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
REKONIXloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 75 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 53 games
55%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
54%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 44 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 43 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
BOOM · 42 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 41 game
63%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 22 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
inYourdreaM · 12 games
42%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dalul · 11 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 9 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
645 picks · 819 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
564 picks · 585 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
465 picks · 402 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
459 picks · 303 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
411 picks · 1056 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 690 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 615 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
372 picks · 977 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
MOUZ 70%REKONIX 30%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMidOne
53% · 265 games50% · 245 games
BeastmasterTraVins
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
54% · 312 games49% · 148 games
DoomFbz
Doom
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
46% · 377 games46% · 157 games
Primal BeastinYourdreaM
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
49% · 165 games50% · 299 games
Shadow Demondalul
Shadow Demon
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidyamich
53% · 86 games51% · 356 games
DisruptorVarizh
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:10
MOUZ 70%REKONIX 30%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMidOne
51% · 460 games50% · 265 games
BeastmasterinYourdreaM
Beastmaster
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
55% · 356 games50% · 298 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
MarciCrystallis
46% · 258 games48% · 207 games
WindrangerTraVins
Windranger
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
49% · 111 games45% · 349 games
Tinydalul
Tiny
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidyamich
53% · 80 games54% · 146 games
PhoenixVarizh
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 82%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2