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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
strongboysloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 64 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
56%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 47 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 41 game
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 40 games
63%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 34 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 33 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Crystallis · 32 games
59%

strongboys

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 9 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 8 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 7 games
43%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 6 games
83%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Tobi · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
574 picks · 923 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
538 picks · 409 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
494 picks · 657 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 630 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
421 picks · 908 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 627 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 518 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
365 picks · 224 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:41
MOUZ 80%strongboys 20%
The model gave 80% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 45:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
54% · 175 games45% · 297 games
GyrocopterLowskill
Gyrocopter
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
47% · 110 games48% · 163 games
Void SpiritStojkov
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyMidOne
51% · 324 games51% · 179 games
MarciChodΣX
Marci
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
52% · 143 games53% · 199 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
51% · 219 games48% · 133 games
UndyingTobi
Undying
Game 2prediction correct26:13
MOUZ 80%strongboys 20%
The model gave 80% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
52% · 208 games54% · 104 games
InvokerStojkov
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
46% · 188 games63% · 76 games
ClinkzLowskill
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMidOne
50% · 425 games52% · 276 games
Centaur WarrunnerChodΣX
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
50% · 235 games43% · 453 games
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Windranger
Windrangeryamich
43% · 301 game49% · 448 games
JakiroTobi
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 94%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2