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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 1:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Aureusloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 33 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 29 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 28 games
64%
Pudge
Pudge
yamich · 23 games
57%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 22 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 17 games
71%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 16 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 14 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 13 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 11 games
73%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 9 games
78%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
581 picks · 290 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
512 picks · 519 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 1059 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
342 picks · 177 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
342 picks · 389 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
340 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 579 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
328 picks · 243 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 73%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:4
MOUZ 59%Team Aureus 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 20:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
49% · 149 games49% · 203 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Huskar
HuskarMidOne
54% · 49 games47% · 163 games
Queen of PainYopaj
Queen of Pain
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
46% · 91 game45% · 289 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
49% · 284 games64% · 134 games
ChenSkem
Chen
Tusk
Tuskyamich
49% · 398 games50% · 182 games
DisruptorTims
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1