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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 43 games
51%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 39 games
64%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Crystallis · 21 game
67%

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 25 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Boxi · 21 game
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 19 games
37%
Tiny
Tiny
Nisha · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
679 picks · 328 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
561 picks · 591 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 1118 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 653 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 250 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
341 picks · 152 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 336 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:10
MOUZ 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 39:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
55% · 277 games53% · 328 games
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
58% · 105 games47% · 389 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
43% · 311 games46% · 183 games
UndyingAce
Undying
Tusk
Tuskyamich
44% · 410 games58% · 168 games
Naga SirentOfu
Naga Siren
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
47% · 235 games49% · 270 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct33:37
MOUZ 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 58:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenCrystallis
45% · 118 games45% · 106 games
Shadow FiendNisha
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
TimbersawLorenof
56% · 138 gameslittle data
KezmiCKe
Kez
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
56% · 74 games45% · 84 games
AxeAce
Axe
Chen
ChenSeleri
61% · 148 games46% · 267 games
BatriderBoxi
Batrider
Lion
Lionyamich
58% · 146 games44% · 167 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Game 3prediction correct16:29
MOUZ 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
48% · 331 game49% · 75 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
43% · 424 games55% · 341 game
BristlebackAce
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
51% · 216 games52% · 311 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Dazzle
DazzleSeleri
51% · 111 games52% · 279 games
PugnatOfu
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonyamich
49% · 270 games50% · 346 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3