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BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 43 games
51%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 40 games
65%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%

Team Spirit

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 16 games
69%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 15 games
73%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
704 picks · 343 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
587 picks · 620 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
483 picks · 254 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1152 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
399 picks · 676 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
396 picks · 252 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
383 picks · 385 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
345 picks · 392 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:48
MOUZ 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 47:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
53% · 57 games48% · 230 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
57% · 352 games49% · 229 games
PangolierCollapse
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
47% · 228 games53% · 15 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
53% · 320 games43% · 295 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
51% · 72 games48% · 260 games
Tuskrue
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct18:43
MOUZ 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
53% · 374 games52% · 226 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Kunkka
KunkkaBOOM
48% · 207 games47% · 301 game
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
58% · 362 games48% · 286 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorSeleri
49% · 336 games44% · 209 games
Hoodwinkrue
Hoodwink
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
55% · 84 games45% · 341 game
TuskPanto
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed43:24
MOUZ 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 54:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
40% · 56 games47% · 133 games
MedusaYatoro
Medusa
Venomancer
VenomancerMidOne
61% · 41 game52% · 255 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
54% · 146 games58% · 90 games
AxeCollapse
Axe
Pugna
PugnaSeleri
46% · 286 games46% · 255 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Tusk
Tuskyamich
48% · 403 games52% · 199 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3