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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Lowskill · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
38%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 20 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 18 games
61%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Daxak · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 14 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Rein · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
556 picks · 618 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
480 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 433 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
392 picks · 810 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
361 picks · 539 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 815 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 317 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
348 picks · 399 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
MOUZ 43%Virtus.pro 57%
The model gave 57% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKami
54% · 23 games42% · 83 games
LinaV-Tune
Lina
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
49% · 304 games49% · 290 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
Bristlebackzeal
50% · 260 games55% · 154 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Huskar
HuskarSeleri
57% · 58 games46% · 238 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Windranger
WindrangerEkki
48% · 207 games57% · 87 games
Naga SirenRein
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct26:29
MOUZ 41%Virtus.pro 59%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverKami
49% · 156 games45% · 112 games
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAbed
53% · 321 game53% · 320 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
49% · 339 games57% · 195 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
53% · 169 games46% · 333 games
TuskAntares
Tusk
Io
IoSeleri
40% · 29 games47% · 54 games
Death ProphetRein
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 63%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2