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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Jakiro
Jakiro
Ekki · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 10 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Lowskill · 9 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 8 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 7 games
29%
Magnus
Magnussignature
xsvampire · 7 games
71%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Daxak · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 22 games
59%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 19 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 19 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 18 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Antares · 14 games
57%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
498 picks · 536 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 428 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 359 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 503 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
321 picks · 698 bans
46%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
298 picks · 174 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 432 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
296 picks · 189 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:32
MOUZ 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
56% · 160 games44% · 173 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
46% · 78 games50% · 174 games
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
Dawnbreaker
Timbersaw
TimbersawSupream^
52% · 215 games45% · 110 games
Primal BeastSerenada
Primal Beast
Lion
LionThiolicor
53% · 224 games55% · 86 games
PugnaRein
Pugna
Undying
UndyingSeleri
59% · 69 games42% · 203 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed32:36
MOUZ 57%Virtus.pro 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain423
40% · 111 games45% · 60 games
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSupream^
60% · 137 games54% · 171 game
PuckSerenada
Puck
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
46% · 129 games49% · 89 games
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
Centaur Warrunner
Undying
UndyingSeleri
48% · 58 games53% · 126 games
Nature's ProphetOneJey
Nature's Prophet
Lion
LionThiolicor
48% · 96 games55% · 85 games
Crystal MaidenRein
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2