BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 34 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 32 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
Pudgesignature
yamich · 26 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 33 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 20 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
625 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
540 picks · 548 bans
Puck
399 picks · 1119 bans
Hoodwink
381 picks · 201 bans
Mars
359 picks · 614 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 47%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:21
MOUZ 67%Yakult Brothers 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 46:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonCrystallis
PuckEmo
LeshracMidOne
Troll Warlordflyfly
MarsBOOM
Undyingzeal
EnchantressSeleri
BatriderBoBoKa
Tuskyamich
ClockwerkPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 75%
Series resultMOUZ 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1