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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 30 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallis · 26 games
58%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 22 games
45%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 21 game
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MidOne · 18 games
39%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 18 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
35%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 40 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
not me · 18 games
61%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 13 games
54%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 13 games
69%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Rain · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
640 picks · 442 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
591 picks · 333 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
472 picks · 553 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 659 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 376 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
354 picks · 522 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
346 picks · 405 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 1028 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total64% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:29
MOUZ 57%Yellow Submarine 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 45:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCrystallis
50% · 295 games50% · 77 games
ClinkzShigetsu
Clinkz
Invoker
InvokerMidOne
53% · 135 games51% · 186 games
LargoRain
Largo
Undying
UndyingBOOM
46% · 88 games55% · 321 game
BatriderBatyuk
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
46% · 192 games46% · 463 games
TinyWein
Tiny
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
52% · 414 games51% · 77 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Game 2prediction missed8:35
MOUZ 56%Yellow Submarine 44%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
58% · 171 game46% · 51 game
LycanBatyuk
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBOOM
42% · 82 games44% · 129 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerCrystallis
55% · 62 games56% · 59 games
InvokerRain
Invoker
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeryamich
43% · 100 games52% · 117 games
BatriderWein
Batrider
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorPanto
49% · 23 games54% · 82 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 64%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2