BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
Tusk
yamich · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
BOOM · 15 games
Jakiro
Seleri · 13 games
Phoenix
aik · 13 games
Razor
Crystallis · 13 games
Yellow Submarine
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 30 games
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Rain · 16 games
Clockwerksignature
not me · 15 games
Hoodwinksignature
not me · 15 games
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 14 games
Kezoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 332 bans
Bane
346 picks · 469 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
330 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 310 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 191 bans
Centaur Warrunner
262 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total75% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:33
MOUZ 32%Yellow Submarine 68%
The model gave 68% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by MOUZ in 54:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerDarkLord^
ClinkzShigetsu
Dragon KnightNyx
InvokerRain
BeastmasterBOOM
NecrophosBatyuk
Miranaxsvampire
LichXakoda
Winter WyvernMoOz
ClockwerkWein
Game 2prediction missed27:22
MOUZ 35%Yellow Submarine 65%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by MOUZ in 52:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
LycanBatyuk
LinaNyx
Drow RangerShigetsu
TidehunterBOOM
Dragon KnightRain
Clockwerkxsvampire
GrimstrokeWein
BaneMoOz
MiranaXakoda
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 75%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2