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CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 26 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 25 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 20 games
55%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 19 games
47%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 23 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 21 game
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 21 game
38%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 16 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 16 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 415 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
433 picks · 570 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
431 picks · 229 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
427 picks · 536 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
420 picks · 497 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 739 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
365 picks · 588 bans
45%
Tiny
Tiny
359 picks · 413 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
MOUZ 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLowskill
47% · 172 games45% · 98 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Puck
PuckSupream^
59% · 237 games52% · 294 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusForce
50% · 186 games45% · 122 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFly
55% · 394 games45% · 278 games
TuskPablo
Tusk
Earthshaker
Earthshakerxsvampire
53% · 87 games49% · 284 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct44:26
MOUZ 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreLowskill
59% · 46 games53% · 136 games
TerrorbladeRetsu
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
44% · 484 games46% · 144 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Bristleback
BristlebackForce
58% · 208 games49% · 293 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Marci
Marcixsvampire
48% · 203 games45% · 321 game
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFly
54% · 319 games47% · 366 games
ClockwerkPablo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2