Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
mudgolemswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
mudgolems
Crystal Maiden
Fata · 3 games
Enigmaoften banned
Fata · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Skiter · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
33 · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Nine · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Nine · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
33 · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Skiter · 1 game
Hippomaniacs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
54 picks · 102 bans
Puck
43 picks · 113 bans
Earth Spirit
41 picks · 31 bans
Void Spirit
39 picks · 59 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 41 bans
Monkey King
32 picks · 64 bans
Mirana
30 picks · 33 bans
Nyx Assassin
29 picks · 90 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% mudgolems
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% mudgolems
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:14
mudgolems 52%Hippomaniacs 48%
The model gave 52% on mudgolems — the game was taken by mudgolems in 30:07.
Game 2prediction correct40:13
mudgolems 52%Hippomaniacs 48%
The model gave 52% on mudgolems — the game was taken by mudgolems in 31:41.
Model check result
Model favoritemudgolems · 52%
Series resultmudgolems 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2