IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Мьянмаwin 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Коста-Рикаloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Коста-Рика
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
374 picks · 597 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 214 bans
Undying
306 picks · 545 bans
Primal Beast
251 picks · 479 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 373 bans
Tusk
234 picks · 141 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 275 bans
Enigma
210 picks · 722 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Мьянма
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Мьянма
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Мьянма 63%Коста-Рика 37%
The model gave 63% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Мьянма.
Model check result
Model favoriteМьянма · 63%
Series resultМьянма 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1