IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Мьянмаloss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Монголияwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Монголия
Phantom Assassin
Ksh · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Leshrac
Young PH · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Kunkka
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
454 picks · 220 bans
Techies
402 picks · 425 bans
Batrider
371 picks · 605 bans
Ember Spirit
353 picks · 572 bans
Morphling
322 picks · 662 bans
Timbersaw
309 picks · 731 bans
Undying
301 picks · 505 bans
Storm Spirit
284 picks · 577 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 75%
Hero pool strength57% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Мьянма
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:20
Мьянма 55%Монголия 45%
The model gave 55% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Монголия in 39:38.
Game 2prediction missed34:12
Мьянма 55%Монголия 45%
The model gave 55% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Монголия in 36:53.
Game 3prediction missed11:36
Мьянма 55%Монголия 45%
The model gave 55% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Монголия in 33:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteМьянма · 55%
Series resultМонголия 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3