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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 15 games
87%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 12 games
83%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 9 games
67%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 8 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Meracle · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Hishge · 6 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Meracle · 5 games
80%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 17 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 12 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
511 picks · 344 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
487 picks · 480 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 419 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
358 picks · 414 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
351 picks · 341 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
305 picks · 159 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
277 picks · 687 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
266 picks · 630 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:47
Myth Avenue Gaming 47%Army Geniuses 53%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 45:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperxsilearn
46% · 83 games52% · 264 games
Beastmasterdb-
Beastmaster
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzeal
47% · 110 games56% · 206 games
LinainYourdreaM
Lina
Mars
MarsMeracle
46% · 156 games48% · 102 games
ZeusYowe
Zeus
Tusk
TuskHishge
46% · 261 game51% · 163 games
DisruptorVarizh
Disruptor
Mirana
MiranaRR
50% · 207 games59% · 82 games
RikiJhocam
Riki
Game 2prediction correct16:42
Myth Avenue Gaming 48%Army Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 35:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMeracle
58% · 89 games51% · 175 games
LinainYourdreaM
Lina
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzeal
54% · 296 games45% · 162 games
KunkkaYowe
Kunkka
Pangolier
Pangolierxsilearn
51% · 400 games42% · 92 games
Pugnadb-
Pugna
Mirana
MiranaRR
51% · 317 games52% · 208 games
Treant ProtectorVarizh
Treant Protector
Riki
RikiHishge
47% · 76 games46% · 541 game
TinyJhocam
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 57%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2