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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
RR · 16 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
70%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xsilearn · 9 games
67%

Polaris Esports

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Bok · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Boomy · 14 games
36%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jing · 12 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 10 games
60%
Lich
Lichsignature
cml · 10 games
80%
Riki
Rikisignature
Jing · 10 games
90%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jing · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
743 picks · 594 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
608 picks · 529 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
553 picks · 1097 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
547 picks · 1313 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
486 picks · 543 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
469 picks · 952 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1138 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
449 picks · 642 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:36
Myth Avenue Gaming 39%Polaris Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 51:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMeracle
54% · 204 games52% · 267 games
Monkey KingAkashi
Monkey King
Pangolier
Pangolierzeal
51% · 263 games53% · 444 games
BeastmasterEnryu
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritxsilearn
44% · 285 games41% · 99 games
Winter WyvernMac
Winter Wyvern
Techies
TechiesPoloson
50% · 194 games55% · 154 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Lich
LichRR
45% · 109 games53% · 91 game
Dark WillowBoomy
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed31:18
Myth Avenue Gaming 37%Polaris Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMeracle
47% · 108 games57% · 133 games
AlchemistAkashi
Alchemist
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritxsilearn
49% · 100 games57% · 180 games
LeshracMac
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey Kingzeal
47% · 127 games54% · 123 games
Spirit BreakerEnryu
Spirit Breaker
Enchantress
EnchantressPoloson
44% · 164 games50% · 124 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerRR
47% · 145 games48% · 84 games
Dark WillowBoomy
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 71%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2