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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPAWN Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 19 games
79%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
78%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
89%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Hishge · 8 games
75%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 7 games
57%

SPAWN Team

Tusk
Tusk
dalul · 24 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TraVins · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
TraVins · 18 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 14 games
43%
Silencer
Silencer
TraVins · 12 games
42%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Jikroy · 11 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Jikroy · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
dalul · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
668 picks · 429 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
580 picks · 543 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
557 picks · 442 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
480 picks · 538 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
388 picks · 386 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 206 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 526 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
339 picks · 221 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total60% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
Myth Avenue Gaming 60%SPAWN Team 40%
The model gave 60% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 36:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMeracle
55% · 148 games42% · 78 games
BloodseekerDreamocel
Bloodseeker
Batrider
Batriderxsilearn
54% · 177 games47% · 149 games
Nature's ProphetRed
Nature's Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark Seerzeal
53% · 61 game43% · 47 games
Legion CommanderMamangDaya
Legion Commander
Mirana
MiranaRR
58% · 228 games49% · 104 games
SilencerTraVins
Silencer
41% · 236 games
Tuskdalul
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct33:6
Myth Avenue Gaming 57%SPAWN Team 43%
The model gave 57% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 22:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetzeal
51% · 293 games61% · 143 games
Templar AssassinDreamocel
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomMeracle
43% · 287 games46% · 349 games
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Ember Spirit
Tusk
Tuskxsilearn
47% · 562 games52% · 248 games
BeastmasterRed
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickRR
46% · 580 games50% · 666 games
Tinydalul
Tiny
56% · 316 games
MiranaTraVins
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 60%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2