Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TTTeam Toughloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Myth Avenue Gaming
Tusksignature
Hishge · 21 game
Miranasignature
RR · 15 games
Rubicksignature
RR · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 9 games
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 9 games
Linasignature
xsilearn · 9 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Meracle · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
zeal · 8 games
Team Tough
Death Prophetoften banned
seimei · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
seimei · 3 games
Doomoften banned
seimei · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
seimei · 1 game
Magnusoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Primal Beastoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Rikioften banned
seimei · 1 game
Viperoften banned
seimei · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
992 picks · 672 bans
Tiny
659 picks · 483 bans
Nature's Prophet
598 picks · 948 bans
Tusk
557 picks · 435 bans
Snapfire
522 picks · 356 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1140 bans
Treant Protector
510 picks · 507 bans
Disruptor
490 picks · 343 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength64% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:14
Myth Avenue Gaming 50%Team Tough 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Tough — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 35:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenMeracle
Doomseimei
Pangolierxsilearn
Chaos KnightYoungGodLevi
DisruptorPlayHard
Game 2prediction missed29:38
Myth Avenue Gaming 52%Team Tough 48%
The model gave 52% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Team Tough in 47:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMeracle
Doomseimei
Nature's ProphetYoungGodLevi
Keeper of the Lightxsilearn
TuskPlayHard
Game 3prediction correct47:15
Myth Avenue Gaming 52%Team Tough 48%
The model gave 52% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYoungGodLevi
Tidehunterseimei
Nature's ProphetMeracle
Batriderxsilearn
RubickPlayHard
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 51%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3