Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Myth Avenue Gaming
Tusksignature
Hishge · 16 games
Rubick
RR · 14 games
Miranasignature
RR · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
xsilearn · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 10 games
Leshracsignature
xsilearn · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Meracle · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
zeal · 9 games
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 20 games
Mirana
LionaX · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Beebie · 13 games
Tiny
Beebie · 13 games
Snapfire
LionaX · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
LionaX · 11 games
Crystal Maiden
LionaX · 10 games
Tusk
boombell · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
719 picks · 515 bans
Disruptor
582 picks · 510 bans
Doom
562 picks · 1095 bans
Beastmaster
550 picks · 1231 bans
Techies
539 picks · 592 bans
Ember Spirit
468 picks · 1051 bans
Pangolier
468 picks · 928 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 660 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total70% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:32
Myth Avenue Gaming 61%UD Vessuwan 39%
The model gave 61% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 1:12:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidMeracle
MorphlingBeebie
Pangolierxsilearn
BloodseekerKNP
Keeper of the LightPoloson
Techiesboombell
Magnuszeal
UndyingLionaX
RubickRR
Game 2prediction correct44:38
Myth Avenue Gaming 61%UD Vessuwan 39%
The model gave 61% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 52:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMeracle
TerrorbladeKNP
Brewmasterzeal
PangolierBeebie
Storm Spiritxsilearn
Clinkzboombell
EnchantressPoloson
UndyingLionaX
PugnaRR
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 70%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2