Nande+4 vs 4ikibamboni — prediction EPLS 38 · Dota 2

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European Pro League Season 38 · BO3

result vs prediction

NNande+4loss 1:2

series probability

45%55%

probability at match start · final 1:2

4ikibamboniwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nande+4

No games played over 6 months.

4ikibamboni

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

611 picks · 385 bans

53%

Rubick

505 picks · 278 bans

50%

Phoenix

493 picks · 579 bans

51%

Tiny

467 picks · 391 bans

49%

Pangolier

415 picks · 578 bans

48%

Puck

347 picks · 954 bans

54%

Tusk

336 picks · 282 bans

53%

Ember Spirit

333 picks · 498 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% Nande+4

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total55% 4ikibamboni

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed27:15

Nande+4 45%4ikibamboni 55%

The model gave 55% on 4ikibamboni — the game was taken by Nande+4 in 28:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo