MESA Invitational 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AAnimeVestaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 26 games
Rubick
Daze · 23 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 20 games
Tinysignature
Niku · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 18 games
AnimeVesta
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
485 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
421 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 537 bans
Dark Willow
356 picks · 184 bans
Luna
331 picks · 442 bans
Batrider
324 picks · 341 bans
Enchantress
311 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 93%AnimeVesta 7%
The model gave 93% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Game 2prediction correct
Natus Vincere Junior 93%AnimeVesta 7%
The model gave 93% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 93%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2