Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
pma · 1 game
Disruptor
Riddys · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
gotthejuice · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Daze · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
gotthejuice · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
pma · 1 game
cybercats
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 12 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 10 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
Rubick
jesv · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 9 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
Disruptor
forcemajor · 7 games
Doomoften banned
zenica · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
940 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
655 picks · 456 bans
Nature's Prophet
566 picks · 898 bans
Tusk
545 picks · 441 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 537 bans
Snapfire
505 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
483 picks · 1061 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 337 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% cybercats
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:29
Natus Vincere Junior 44%cybercats 56%
The model gave 56% on cybercats — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 47:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
LifestealerAlberkaaa
PangolierRi4man
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knightpma
Primal BeastDkFogas
RubickDaze
Techiesjesv
JakiroRiddys
Disruptorforcemajor
Game 2prediction correct26:37
Natus Vincere Junior 44%cybercats 56%
The model gave 56% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
Nature's ProphetAlberkaaa
Storm SpiritRi4man
DoomDkFogas
Primal Beastpma
Outworld DestroyerChira JUNIOR
DisruptorDaze
Tinyforcemajor
SnapfireRiddys
Rubickjesv
Game 3prediction missed28:7
Natus Vincere Junior 42%cybercats 58%
The model gave 58% on cybercats — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
TinyRi4man
MorphlingAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Primal BeastDkFogas
RubickDaze
Enchantressjesv
SnapfireRiddys
Treant Protectorforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 61%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3