Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dandelionswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
Snapfire
Daze · 35 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 25 games
Pangoliersignature
Niku · 20 games
Batridersignature
Daze · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 16 games
Puckoften banned
Niku · 15 games
Dandelions
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 222 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 678 bans
Centaur Warrunner
423 picks · 602 bans
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 381 bans
Batrider
413 picks · 745 bans
Rubick
377 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 754 bans
Dragon Knight
345 picks · 1023 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:33
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dandelions in 37:34.
Game 2prediction correct24:15
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 23:59.
Game 3prediction missed28:32
Natus Vincere Junior 63%Dandelions 37%
The model gave 63% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Dandelions in 48:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 63%
Series resultDandelions 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3