Natus Vincere Junior vs KZ TEAM — prediction PCMV# · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3

result vs prediction

Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2

series probability

56%44%

probability at match start · final 0:2

KZ TEAMwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

No games played over 6 months.

KZ TEAM

Snapfire

SsaSpartan · 30 games

43%

Earthshakersignature

dEsire · 27 games

63%

Primal Beastoften banned

dEsire · 22 games

55%

Beastmastersignature

SkyLark · 21 game

62%

Rubick

dEsire · 20 games

50%

Death Prophetoften banned

W1sh- · 19 games

53%

Tinysignature

dEsire · 17 games

71%

Vipersignature

SkyLark · 17 games

76%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

856 picks · 603 bans

49%

Tiny

615 picks · 425 bans

52%

Treant Protector

528 picks · 544 bans

55%

Tusk

522 picks · 428 bans

47%

Nature's Prophet

511 picks · 824 bans

55%

Snapfire

459 picks · 316 bans

46%

Death Prophet

458 picks · 950 bans

52%

Clockwerk

410 picks · 297 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% KZ TEAM

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total56% Natus Vincere Junior

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed24:25

Natus Vincere Junior 53%KZ TEAM 47%

The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 45:03.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo