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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 12 games
25%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 11 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 10 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Niku · 10 games
20%

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 16 games
38%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
259 picks · 437 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
238 picks · 367 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
222 picks · 290 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total77% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:18
Natus Vincere Junior 23%KZ TEAM 77%
The model gave 77% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 77%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1