Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Dragon Knight
pma · 15 games
Rubick
Daze · 15 games
Mirana
Daze · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 12 games
Techies
Daze · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 11 games
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 13 games
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 11 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
310 picks · 153 bans
Ember Spirit
220 picks · 289 bans
Pangolier
211 picks · 413 bans
Beastmaster
196 picks · 391 bans
Skywrath Mage
190 picks · 110 bans
Dark Seer
186 picks · 354 bans
Storm Spirit
186 picks · 274 bans
Doom
173 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength62% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:26
Natus Vincere Junior 36%Level UP 64%
The model gave 64% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 37:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
SvenV-Tune
Primal BeastNiku
Storm SpiritLorenof
Magnuspma
EarthshakerOwnedMe
Shadow DemonDaze
WarlockMiLAN
LionRiddys
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Game 2prediction correct19:25
Natus Vincere Junior 37%Level UP 63%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 46:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Templar AssassinLorenof
Brewmasterpma
BeastmasterOwnedMe
Storm SpiritNiku
SlarkV-Tune
Skywrath MageDaze
Treant Protectorswedenstrong
DisruptorRiddys
WarlockMiLAN
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 72%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2