European Pro League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 12 games
Doomoften banned
pma · 11 games
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 11 games
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 10 games
Level UP
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Keeper of the Light
swedenstrong · 13 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 13 games
Brewmasteroften banned
OwnedMe · 12 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
Tusk
dEsire · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Lorenof · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
268 picks · 437 bans
Muerta
233 picks · 326 bans
Phoenix
219 picks · 325 bans
Dark Willow
215 picks · 114 bans
Centaur Warrunner
202 picks · 277 bans
Tusk
202 picks · 181 bans
Treant Protector
200 picks · 406 bans
Kunkka
187 picks · 529 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:26
Natus Vincere Junior 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
SlarkFocus
PuckNiku
TinyBor@nija
Centaur Warrunnerpma
BeastmasterMikSa`
LionDaze
PugnaRiddys
Game 2prediction correct18:43
Natus Vincere Junior 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Void SpiritBor@nija
Beastmasterpma
LinaFocus
PangolierNiku
MagnusMikSa`
SnapfireDaze
LionRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 56%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2