European Pro League Season 17 · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 3:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 3:1
MOUZloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
Lionsignature
Riddys · 25 games
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Pugna
Riddys · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
MOUZ
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 20 games
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 19 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 18 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 14 games
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
461 picks · 201 bans
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 672 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 836 bans
Tiny
427 picks · 591 bans
Rubick
410 picks · 177 bans
Pangolier
389 picks · 694 bans
Techies
386 picks · 297 bans
Mars
384 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:17
Natus Vincere Junior 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusagotthejuice
AlchemistUlnit
Pangolierpma
LeshracSupream^
Keeper of the LightNiku
Centaur WarrunnerForce
BatriderRiddys
Shadow Demonbengan
GyrocopterDaze
TinyNARMAN
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Natus Vincere Junior 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealergotthejuice
Templar AssassinUlnit
Razorpma
ZeusSupream^
DazzleNiku
Dark SeerForce
IoDaze
Dark WillowNARMAN
LionRiddys
Crystal Maidenbengan
Game 3prediction correct50:39
Natus Vincere Junior 44%MOUZ 56%
The model gave 56% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beastpma
RazorSupream^
Windrangergotthejuice
LunaUlnit
DazzleNiku
EnigmaForce
PugnaDaze
TinyNARMAN
BatriderRiddys
Oraclebengan
Game 4prediction missed34:19
Natus Vincere Junior 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealergotthejuice
LunaUlnit
RazorNiku
Keeper of the LightSupream^
SnapfireDaze
ViperForce
ChenRiddys
Shadow Demonbengan
Marspma
TinyNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4