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European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 33 games
42%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 29 games
66%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
77%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
32%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 19 games
53%

MOUZ

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 26 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 24 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 21 game
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 16 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 209 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 590 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 740 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 535 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
379 picks · 153 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 689 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
342 picks · 300 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 540 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:25
Natus Vincere Junior 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 23:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
50% · 100 games43% · 168 games
Templar AssassinSupream^
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckNiku
47% · 171 game47% · 38 games
Chaos KnightUlnit
Chaos Knight
Meepo
Meepopma
59% · 21 game50% · 222 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyDaze
55% · 156 games56% · 36 games
Venomancerbengan
Venomancer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenRiddys
48% · 166 games53% · 150 games
PugnaNARMAN
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct7:27
Natus Vincere Junior 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
41% · 121 game53% · 169 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
46% · 185 games56% · 106 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
Mars
Marspma
52% · 211 games43% · 30 games
DazzleSupream^
Dazzle
Io
IoDaze
54% · 75 games51% · 238 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionRiddys
48% · 221 game52% · 270 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2