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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 35 games
66%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
pma · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Niku · 21 game
57%
Lifestealer
Lifestealersignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daze · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Daze · 13 games
62%

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 41 game
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
bengan · 37 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 34 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 30 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
NARMAN · 28 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 22 games
32%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 276 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 452 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 310 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
316 picks · 366 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 420 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
298 picks · 468 bans
47%
Enchantress
Enchantress
295 picks · 513 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:12
Natus Vincere Junior 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunagotthejuice
48% · 268 games46% · 182 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerNiku
56% · 129 games53% · 93 games
SniperSupream^
Sniper
Underlord
Underlordpma
47% · 85 games53% · 185 games
Primal BeastForce
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
48% · 263 games52% · 246 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Lion
LionRiddys
53% · 170 games43% · 209 games
Tuskbengan
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed37:17
Natus Vincere Junior 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 58:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunagotthejuice
49% · 205 games42% · 130 games
RazorSupream^
Razor
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
60% · 87 games49% · 245 games
Dragon KnightUlnit
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
54% · 196 games50% · 118 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
47% · 196 games40% · 24 games
Witch Doctorbengan
Witch Doctor
Lich
LichRiddys
50% · 14 games54% · 181 game
TuskNARMAN
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2