Natus Vincere Junior vs Nemesis Curse — prediction EOB2ОК · Dota 2

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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1

result vs prediction

Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0

series probability

37%63%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Nemesis Curseloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstrokesignature

Riddys · 21 game

62%

Lion

Riddys · 19 games

26%

Vengeful Spirit

pma · 17 games

59%

Pangolieroften banned

Niku · 16 games

38%

Marcisignature

Daze · 15 games

67%

Snapfire

Daze · 15 games

47%

Morphlingoften banned

gotthejuice · 14 games

29%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

pma · 12 games

42%

Nemesis Curse

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Centaur Warrunner

296 picks · 426 bans

54%

Phoenix

271 picks · 403 bans

49%

Grimstroke

259 picks · 441 bans

51%

Nature's Prophet

225 picks · 627 bans

53%

Tusk

225 picks · 206 bans

46%

Lion

223 picks · 199 bans

51%

Vengeful Spirit

218 picks · 108 bans

54%

Pangolier

214 picks · 305 bans

55%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%

Hero pool strength51% Nemesis Curse

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total63% Nemesis Curse

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed33:19

Natus Vincere Junior 42%Nemesis Curse 58%

The model gave 58% on Nemesis Curse — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 51:56.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo