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The Portal Dota 2 World Invitationals · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Night Pulsewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 21 game
48%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
73%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%

Night Pulse

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
JANTER · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Corrupted · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 749 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 697 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
431 picks · 345 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 554 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
422 picks · 903 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
412 picks · 357 bans
52%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
402 picks · 177 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 194 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Night Pulse
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:42
Natus Vincere Junior 45%Night Pulse 55%
The model gave 55% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
52% · 210 games47% · 109 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Kunkka
Kunkkapma
45% · 149 games49% · 232 games
DoomCorrupted
Doom
Razor
RazorNiku
46% · 90 games50% · 269 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Chen
ChenRiddys
59% · 102 games50% · 101 game
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDaze
52% · 160 games
Game 2prediction correct16:33
Natus Vincere Junior 46%Night Pulse 54%
The model gave 54% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
60% · 193 games49% · 253 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Lifestealer
Lifestealergotthejuice
48% · 110 games48% · 111 games
Death ProphetCorrupted
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNiku
49% · 266 games51% · 409 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderDaze
50% · 293 games48% · 224 games
Crystal MaidenJANTER
Crystal Maiden
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeRiddys
47% · 135 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 59%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2