DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:1series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Ninja Penguinswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
Lion
Riddys · 12 games
Doomoften banned
pma · 11 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
gotthejuice · 11 games
Pugnaoften banned
Daze · 11 games
Ninja Penguins
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 2 games
Alchemist
Lowskill · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Meepooften banned
Copy · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
270 picks · 445 bans
Phoenix
245 picks · 389 bans
Centaur Warrunner
240 picks · 323 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Tusk
215 picks · 204 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Nature's Prophet
193 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:39
Natus Vincere Junior 35%Ninja Penguins 65%
The model gave 65% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 48:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 65%
Series resultNinja Penguins 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1