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European Pro League Season 21 · BO5
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 3:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Passion UAloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 33 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 25 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 22 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 18 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 18 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Niku · 17 games
47%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 30 games
53%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
flacko · 27 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fernans · 23 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
yowaai · 21 game
48%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Batyuk · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
flacko · 16 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
508 picks · 686 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
427 picks · 487 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 533 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
355 picks · 183 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
355 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 495 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 629 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
319 picks · 328 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
Natus Vincere Junior 58%Passion UA 42%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistgotthejuice
51% · 240 games48% · 167 games
Linaniche
Lina
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
55% · 289 games49% · 416 games
Gyrocopteryowaai
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyNiku
48% · 354 games56% · 127 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
50% · 265 games47% · 425 games
BatriderFernans
Batrider
Rubick
RubickDaze
49% · 313 games48% · 326 games
Tuskflacko
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct40:14
Natus Vincere Junior 60%Passion UA 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 34:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
50% · 221 game51% · 171 game
Razoryowaai
Razor
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
62% · 180 games47% · 219 games
Marsniche
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingNiku
57% · 128 games46% · 122 games
TerrorbladeBatyuk
Terrorblade
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
40% · 31 game43% · 268 games
SnapfireFernans
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
45% · 284 games52% · 64 games
Ogre Magiflacko
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction correct45:26
Natus Vincere Junior 59%Passion UA 41%
The model gave 59% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
56% · 148 games53% · 115 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
50% · 345 games53% · 120 games
Queen of Painniche
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
49% · 196 games44% · 242 games
BeastmasterBatyuk
Beastmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanDaze
35% · 24 games53% · 298 games
GyrocopterFernans
Gyrocopter
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
45% · 257 games51% · 195 games
Marciflacko
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3