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DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Passion UAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Lich
Lich
Riddys · 28 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 27 games
59%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Niku · 27 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Riddys · 26 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
gotthejuice · 24 games
83%
Lion
Lionsignature
Daze · 21 game
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
75%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Fernans · 28 games
61%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 26 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Fernans · 25 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 23 games
74%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 22 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 726 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 316 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
429 picks · 703 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 402 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
382 picks · 875 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
382 picks · 661 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
381 picks · 1014 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 509 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total89% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Natus Vincere Junior 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
45% · 169 games53% · 476 games
TinyCrystallize
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNiku
44% · 363 games62% · 50 games
Huskarniche
Huskar
Pangolier
Pangolierpma
39% · 365 games55% · 283 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
49% · 196 games50% · 283 games
HoodwinkFernans
Hoodwink
Riki
RikiZayac
53% · 52 games57% · 53 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct28:13
Natus Vincere Junior 74%Passion UA 26%
The model gave 74% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladegotthejuice
48% · 200 games52% · 84 games
MedusaBatyuk
Medusa
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
44% · 343 games52% · 160 games
Monkey Kingniche
Monkey King
Sniper
SniperNiku
44% · 136 games62% · 201 game
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Riki
RikiZayac
52% · 47 games53% · 266 games
TinyFernans
Tiny
Ringmaster
RingmasterRiddys
52% · 13 games45% · 28 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 89%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2