European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 33 games
Lionsignature
Riddys · 30 games
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 19 games
Pugna
Riddys · 19 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 210 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 596 bans
Batrider
389 picks · 740 bans
Centaur Warrunner
378 picks · 533 bans
Rubick
377 picks · 154 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 301 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 694 bans
Mars
332 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:40
Natus Vincere Junior 65%Rest Farmers 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 55:44.
Game 2prediction correct43:17
Natus Vincere Junior 65%Rest Farmers 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 38:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 65%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2