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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sigma.YNTloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
pma · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Riddys · 3 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Daze · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
gotthejuice · 2 games
0%

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 27 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 19 games
32%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
v1olent- · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomsignature
kur0patbI4 · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
foryou · 12 games
58%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1000 picks · 687 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
652 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
604 picks · 958 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 430 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
527 picks · 358 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
517 picks · 375 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
516 picks · 1183 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
499 picks · 373 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:22
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Sigma.YNT 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightgotthejuice
50% · 261 game49% · 98 games
AbaddonWoE
Abaddon
Tiny
TinyRi4man
50% · 560 games44% · 499 games
Ember Spiritforyou
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunterpma
45% · 124 games58% · 439 games
Beastmasterkur0patbI4
Beastmaster
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
50% · 124 games54% · 160 games
Skywrath Magequeezy
Skywrath Mage
Rubick
RubickDaze
44% · 529 games55% · 402 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed19:38
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Sigma.YNT 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirengotthejuice
53% · 117 games40% · 401 game
Ember Spiritforyou
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRi4man
60% · 198 games49% · 37 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightpma
53% · 215 games49% · 326 games
Beastmasterkur0patbI4
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaDaze
51% · 339 games56% · 231 game
Monkey Kingqueezy
Monkey King
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
51% · 227 games39% · 101 game
LichVANSKOR
Lich
Game 3prediction correct39:10
Natus Vincere Junior 50%Sigma.YNT 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkgotthejuice
57% · 95 games53% · 74 games
Anti-MageWoE
Anti-Mage
Puck
PuckRi4man
50% · 218 games47% · 344 games
Doomkur0patbI4
Doom
Beastmaster
Beastmasterpma
53% · 277 games44% · 204 games
Kunkkaforyou
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickDaze
53% · 476 games38% · 362 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireRiddys
47% · 330 games59% · 412 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3