Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
StoRmwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 14 games
Mirana
Daze · 12 games
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Dragon Knight
pma · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 10 games
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 9 games
Pangoliersignature
Ri4man · 9 games
StoRm
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 12 games
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 12 games
Spirit Breaker
OneJey · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
Techiesoften banned
OneJey · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 8 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
434 picks · 208 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 509 bans
Techies
326 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
301 picks · 510 bans
Morphling
293 picks · 566 bans
Undying
293 picks · 476 bans
Timbersaw
274 picks · 647 bans
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% StoRm
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total60% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Natus Vincere Junior 43%StoRm 57%
The model gave 57% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
BrewmasterDominic
Pangoliertoshiyb
Earthshakernicky`cool
Dragon Knightpma
PhoenixSoNNeikO
RubickDaze
GrimstrokeOneJey
WarlockRiddys
Game 2prediction correct20:24
Natus Vincere Junior 43%StoRm 57%
The model gave 57% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 34:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Doompma
BeastmasterDominic
Invokertoshiyb
Nature's ProphetSoNNeikO
Dark WillowDaze
Skywrath MageOneJey
ClockwerkRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 60%
Series resultStoRm 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2