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European Pro League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kleewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 15 games
40%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 15 games
67%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 13 games
23%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pma · 11 games
36%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
gotthejuice · 11 games
55%

Team Klee

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
265 picks · 382 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
256 picks · 431 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 389 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
218 picks · 205 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
216 picks · 550 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
200 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
195 picks · 174 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total78% Team Klee
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:24
Natus Vincere Junior 22%Team Klee 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 47:10.
Game 2prediction missed34:23
Natus Vincere Junior 22%Team Klee 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 49:04.
Game 3prediction correct34:49
Natus Vincere Junior 22%Team Klee 78%
The model gave 78% on Team Klee — the game was taken by Team Klee in 1:07:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Klee · 78%
Series resultTeam Klee 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3