RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team NextUploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Lionsignature
Riddys · 40 games
Snapfire
Daze · 26 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 23 games
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 23 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 21 game
Batridersignature
Daze · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 18 games
Team NextUp
Batrideroften banned
so bad · 13 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Lifestealeroften banned
7jesu · 8 games
Razoroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirage · 7 games
Void Spirit
Mirage · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
jesv · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Miyaoo · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
380 picks · 653 bans
Gyrocopter
319 picks · 366 bans
Clockwerk
314 picks · 445 bans
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
Weaver
304 picks · 562 bans
Rubick
295 picks · 184 bans
Hoodwink
291 picks · 196 bans
Crystal Maiden
285 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength60% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total85% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:8
Natus Vincere Junior 72%Team NextUp 28%
The model gave 72% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursagotthejuice
Sven7jesu
Brewmasterpma
Templar AssassinMirage
PuckNiku
Doomzvёzd
JakiroRiddys
Witch DoctorVaniLLl
RubickDaze
Game 2prediction correct22:16
Natus Vincere Junior 71%Team NextUp 29%
The model gave 71% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Weaver7jesu
Queen of PainNiku
Beastmasterzvёzd
Primal Beastpma
BatriderMirage
SvenRiddys
Elder TitanVaniLLl
IoDaze
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 85%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2